A National League series kicks off on Friday, June 27, 2025, with a classic David vs. Goliath matchup as the first-place New York Mets travel to PNC Park to take on the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates. While both teams have struggled in their last ten games, the Mets appear to be righting the ship after two straight wins, while the Pirates continue to languish at the bottom of the NL Central.

Game Details:

• Matchup: New York Mets (48-34) at Pittsburgh Pirates (32-50)
• Date: Friday, June 27, 2025
• Time: 6:40 PM ET
• Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• Pitching Matchup: David Peterson (NYM: 5-3, 2.98 ERA) vs. Mitch Keller (PIT: 1-10, 4.02 ERA)
• The Line (via ESPN BET): NYM ML -145 / PIT ML +120; Total O/U 8.5 (Under -120); NYM RL -1.5 (+125) / PIT RL +1.5 (-150)

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets sit atop the NL East with a 48-34 record and a commanding +65 run differential. Their offense is a force, averaging 4.44 runs per game, powered by superstars like Pete Alonso (18 HR, 65 RBI) and Juan Soto (19 HR). While they are just 3-7 in their last 10, they’ve won their last two and have an 88% chance of making the postseason.

On the mound is lefty David Peterson, who has been a steady presence in the rotation with a 5-3 record and a 2.98 ERA. While he was roughed up in his last road start against Philadelphia, his overall body of work this season has been excellent, including a solid 2.91 ERA over his last seven starts. The Mets have a clear advantage on paper and will look to capitalize against a struggling Pirates squad.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are in the midst of a difficult season, holding a 32-50 record. Their biggest weakness has been a punchless offense that scores just 3.26 runs per game and ranks near the bottom of the league with a .228 team batting average. Their primary saving grace has been their play at home, where they are a respectable 20-21.

They’ll send their unlucky ace, Mitch Keller, to the hill. Keller’s 1-10 record is a testament to the team’s abysmal run support, as his 4.02 ERA and 1.22 WHIP are far more indicative of a solid mid-rotation starter. He has also historically pitched well against the Mets, boasting a 2.12 ERA in his last five starts against them. If the Pirates are to pull off an upset, Keller will need to be nearly perfect, and his offense will have to find a way to produce.

Prediction: The Value Pick

This game features a massive disparity in overall team quality. While the Pirates play better at home and Mitch Keller is a capable pitcher, the difference in offensive firepower is too significant to ignore. The Mets are a playoff-bound team, while the Pirates are playing for next year.

The pick is the New York Mets Moneyline (-145).

Here’s the rationale:

1. Overwhelming Offensive Advantage: The Mets’ offense, which scores over a full run more per game than the Pirates, is the deciding factor. Keller’s respectable ERA means little when his team consistently fails to score for him, as evidenced by his 1-10 record. The Mets lineup, featuring Alonso, Soto, and Lindor, can overwhelm any pitcher.
2. Superior Starting Pitcher: While Keller has had some success against the Mets, David Peterson has simply been the better pitcher this season. With a sub-3.00 ERA, Peterson gives his team a great chance to win every time out, and he is backed by a lineup that can provide ample run support.
3. Analytics Back the Pick: ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives the Mets a 60.3% chance to win this game. The -145 odds imply a 59.2% probability, indicating that the line is fair and accurately reflects the Mets’ advantage.
4. Team Trajectories: The Mets are a legitimate contender fighting for playoff positioning. The Pirates are a last-place team. In these matchups, the better, more motivated team with a clear offensive edge usually prevails, even on the road.

Despite the game being in Pittsburgh, the Mets are the far superior ballclub from top to bottom. Expect their potent offense to provide Peterson with enough support to secure the victory against the run-starved Pirates.

Our Pick: New York Mets Moneyline (-145)