The Indiana Pacers, holding a 3-2 series lead, return to Gainbridge Fieldhouse with an opportunity to clinch their spot in the NBA Finals as they host the New York Knicks in a pivotal Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Knicks staved off elimination with a convincing 111-94 victory in Game 5 and will look to force a decisive Game 7. With Indiana looking to close it out at home and New York fighting for their season, Game 6 is set for a high-stakes showdown.

Game Details:

• Matchup: New York Knicks (51-31 Reg. Season) vs. Indiana Pacers (50-32 Reg. Season)
• Series: Indiana Pacers lead 3-2
• Date: Saturday, May 31, 2025
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• The Line: Indiana Pacers -3.5 (-115); Over/Under: 219.5 (Over EVEN / Under -120); NYK ML +135 / IND ML -155

New York Knicks Betting Preview

The New York Knicks (51-31 regular season, 2-3 in series) showed their resilience in Game 5 with a dominant home win to keep their season alive. Jalen Brunson has been spectacular, averaging 33.0 points and 5.4 assists in the series. Karl-Anthony Towns has provided strong support with 25.4 points and 11.8 rebounds per game in this matchup. The Knicks have actually outscored the Pacers by a total of 6 points in the series and boast a slightly higher offensive rating (117.3 to Indiana’s 116.1). Their regular season offense averaged 115.8 PPG (9th) with a 5th-ranked offensive rating (118.5), though they played at a slower pace (96.7, 26th). They will need another strong road performance, similar to their Game 3 win in Indiana, to extend the series. No significant new injuries are reported for the Knicks.

Indiana Pacers Betting Preview

The Indiana Pacers (50-32 regular season, 3-2 in series) are one win away from the NBA Finals and will aim to capitalize on their home-court advantage. After a disappointing offensive showing in Game 5 (94 points), they’ll look to bounce back. Pascal Siakam leads the Pacers in this series with 23.6 points per game, while Tyrese Haliburton is contributing 21.0 points and a series-leading 10.0 assists per game. The Pacers’ potent offense averaged 117.4 PPG (7th) with a 9th-ranked offensive rating (116.5) during the regular season, playing at a fast pace (99.9, 7th). They will need their offense to fire on all cylinders, as it did in their Game 4 home win where they scored 130 points. Tony Bradley is listed as game-time decision, while Isaiah Jackson remains out.

Statistical Breakdown for the Total: Expecting More Points

Game 5 saw a lower total of 205 points, largely due to Indiana’s offensive struggles (94 points, 25.8% 3PT). However, the series and team metrics suggest a higher-scoring Game 6 is likely:

• Game 4 & Game 5 Contrasts:
  • Game 4 (IND home): IND 130 - NYK 121 (Total 251). Pacers’ ORtg was exceptionally high (~133.7).
  • Game 5 (NYK home): NYK 111 - IND 94 (Total 205). Pacers’ ORtg was very low (~97), well below their capabilities.
• Projected Pace for Game 6: The series has been played at an average pace of 97.2 possessions. We anticipate Game 6 will maintain a similar pace.
• Projected Offensive Efficiency:
  • New York: Season ORtg 118.5, Series ORtg 117.3. Coming off a strong offensive Game 5 (111 points, ~114-118 ORtg depending on exact pace) and facing elimination, we project their ORtg around 117.5.
  • Indiana: Season ORtg 116.5, Series ORtg 116.1. After a poor offensive G5, expect a bounce-back at home with a chance to clinch. Their ORtg in two home games this series has varied (G3 ~102.9, G4 ~133.7). We project an ORtg around 118.0 for this crucial home game.
• Projected Score & Total (using 97.2 pace):
  • New York: (117.5 / 100) * 97.2 = 114.2 points
  • Indiana: (118.0 / 100) * 97.2 = 114.7 points
  • This leads to a projected game total of 228.9 points.
• The Discrepancy: Our projected total of 228.9 is 9.4 points higher than the market line of 219.5.

Prediction: Why the Over 219.5 (EVEN) is the Play

The 9.4-point difference between our data-driven projection (228.9) and the sportsbook’s total (219.5) presents value, especially at even money. While two of the last three games have gone under, Indiana’s offensive output in those games (100 points in G3, 94 in G5) was well below their season and series averages. It’s unlikely the Pacers offense will struggle to that extent for a third time, especially at home with the NBA Finals on the line.

The Knicks have consistently scored, putting up 106+ points in every game this series. The Pacers, outside of their G5 outlier, have also shown high scoring ability (138, 114, 130 in three of the games). If both teams play closer to their offensive potential, which is likely in a high-stakes Game 6, the total should comfortably exceed 219.5. The EVEN odds for the Over make this an attractive proposition.

Our Pick: Over 219.5 points (EVEN)