The Indiana Pacers, holding a surprising 1-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals, return to Madison Square Garden to battle the New York Knicks in a pivotal Game 2. After a thrilling 138-135 overtime victory for Indiana in the series opener, the Knicks are under immense pressure to defend their home court and even the series. Game 1 was an offensive explosion, and the question for Game 2 is whether we’ll see a defensive clampdown or another high-scoring affair.

Game Details:

• Matchup: Indiana Pacers (50-33) vs. New York Knicks (51-31)
• Series: Indiana Pacers lead 1-0
• Date: Saturday, May 23, 2025
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
• The Line: New York Knicks -5.5 (-120); Over/Under: 225.5 (Over -110 / Under -110); IND ML +210 / NYK ML -255

Indiana Pacers Betting Preview

The Indiana Pacers (50-32 regular season, 1-0 in series) stunned the MSG crowd by snatching Game 1 in overtime. Their high-octane offense was on full display, led by Tyrese Haliburton’s 31 points and 11 assists, and a remarkable shooting performance from Aaron Nesmith who poured in 30 points, including 8 three-pointers. Pascal Siakam added 17 points. During the regular season, Indiana averaged 117.4 points per game (7th in NBA) with a 9th-ranked offensive rating (116.5) and played at the 7th fastest pace (99.9). Defensively, they allowed 115.1 PPG (17th) with a 13th-ranked defensive rating (114.3). Game 1 showcased their offensive potential even against a tough Knicks team, scoring 125 points in regulation. All key players are expected to be available, with Isaiah Jackson (Achilles) being their only long-term absentee.

New York Knicks Betting Preview

The New York Knicks (51-31 regular season, 0-1 in series) will be desperate to avoid going down 0-2 before the series shifts to Indiana. Despite the loss, Jalen Brunson was electric with 43 points, though he also committed 7 turnovers. Karl-Anthony Towns had a massive game with 35 points and 12 rebounds, and Mikal Bridges contributed 16 points. The Knicks’ regular season offense averaged 115.8 PPG (9th) with an elite 5th-ranked offensive rating (118.5). They were 14th in defensive rating (114.3), allowing 111.7 PPG (9th), and preferred a slower pace (96.7, 26th). They managed 125 points in regulation in Game 1, demonstrating their ability to keep up with the Pacers’ attack. They have no new significant injuries reported from Game 1.

Statistical Breakdown for the Total: More Points on the Horizon?

Game 1 saw a combined 273 points, with 250 points scored in regulation (125-125), flying past most expectations. The current line for Game 2 is set at 225.5. Our analysis, however, suggests this might still be too conservative:

• Game 1 Pace & Offensive Ratings:
  • Both teams played at a pace of 97.1. Indiana’s Offensive Rating was a stellar 128.7, while New York’s was also very strong at 125.9.
• Projected Pace for Game 2: We anticipate a similar pace, around 97.5 possessions, as both teams showed they can operate effectively in this environment.
• Projected Offensive Efficiency:
  • Indiana: Blending season data with Game 1’s potent output, we project an Offensive Rating around 123.8.
  • New York: Similarly, we project an Offensive Rating around 122.9.
• Projected Score & Total:
  • This projects to a neutral court score of roughly Indiana 120.7 - New York 119.9.
  • Factoring in home-court advantage (approx. 2.5 points for NYK), our projected score is closer to New York 122 - Indiana 121.
  • This leads to a projected game total of 243 points.
• The Discrepancy: Our projected total of 243 is a significant 17.5 points higher than the market line of 225.5.

Prediction: Why the Over 225.5 is the Play

The primary driver for this pick is the substantial 17.5-point difference between our data-driven projection (243) and the sportsbook’s total (225.5). While Aaron Nesmith’s 8-for-9 three-point shooting in Game 1 is an outlier unlikely to be fully replicated, the overall offensive environment established in that game is hard to ignore.

Both teams demonstrated an ability to score efficiently against each other. The pace was quick enough to generate ample possessions, and neither defense seemed to have a definitive answer for the primary offensive threats for extended periods. Jalen Brunson is likely to be more careful with the ball, and the Knicks, playing with the desperation of avoiding an 0-2 hole at home, might push the tempo even more or find themselves in more open-court situations.

Even if there’s a natural regression from the incredible offensive numbers of Game 1, a combined score of 250 in regulation sets a high bar. To fall below 225.5 would require a dramatic shift in pace and defensive effectiveness from both sides. Given what we’ve seen, and the offensive talent on both rosters, expecting another game where both teams comfortably exceed 110-115 points seems reasonable. The value lies with the Over.

Our Pick: Over 225.5 points (-110)