The Indiana Pacers are on the cusp of an NBA Finals appearance, holding a commanding 3-1 series lead as they head to Madison Square Garden to face a New York Knicks team fighting for their playoff lives in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. After the Pacers’ decisive 130-121 victory in Game 4, the pressure is squarely on the Knicks to defend their home court and extend the series. With stakes at their absolute peak, this clash promises to be an electrifying contest.

Game Details:

• Matchup: Indiana Pacers (50-32 Reg. Season) vs. New York Knicks (51-31 Reg. Season)
• Series: Indiana Pacers lead 3-1
• Date: Thursday, May 29
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: Madison Square Garden (IV), New York, NY
• The Line: New York Knicks -4.5 (-105); Over/Under: 222.5 (Over -115 / Under -105); IND ML +145 / NYK ML -170

Indiana Pacers Betting Preview

The Indiana Pacers (3-1 in series) have been exceptional, particularly on the road in this series, winning both Games 1 and 2 at MSG. They showcased their offensive depth and Haliburton’s brilliance in Game 4 with a 130-point outburst. Tyrese Haliburton has been phenomenal, averaging 24.3 points and a staggering 11.0 assists in the series, including a 32-point, 15-assist masterpiece in Game 4. Pascal Siakam is contributing 25.8 PPG and 4.8 RPG on 54.1% shooting. Aaron Nesmith has been a sharpshooting revelation, averaging 16.5 PPG and hitting 61.9% of his threes. The Pacers’ offense, which ranked 7th in PPG (117.4) and 9th in Offensive Rating (116.5) during the regular season, has been even more potent in this series, averaging 120.5 PPG with an ORtg of 121.2. Isaiah Jackson (calf) remains out.

New York Knicks Betting Preview

The New York Knicks (1-3 in series) return home with their season on the line. They need a victory to force a Game 6. Jalen Brunson continues to carry a heavy load, averaging 33.3 points and 5.5 assists in the series, though his efficiency has been tested. Karl-Anthony Towns has stepped up, averaging 25.8 points and 11.5 rebounds against the Pacers. OG Anunoby is contributing 17.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and a crucial 2.3 SPG. The Knicks boasted a strong regular season offense (9th in PPG at 115.8, 5th in ORtg at 118.5) and have maintained that level in the series (117.8 PPG, 118.5 ORtg). They have no new significant injuries reported, which is crucial for their hopes.

Prediction: The Value Pick for Game 5

When analyzing the odds for Game 5, one particular line stands out due to the discrepancy between market pricing and the series reality: the Indiana Pacers Moneyline at +145.

Here’s the rationale:

1. Series Control & Road Performance: The Pacers aren’t just up 3-1; they’ve demonstrated a remarkable ability to win in hostile territory. They’ve already secured victories in Game 1 (138-135) and Game 2 (114-109) at Madison Square Garden in this very series. This isn’t a team that shrinks on the road.
2. Market Overreaction?: The New York Knicks are priced as -170 favorites, implying a roughly 63% chance of winning. While home-court advantage and desperation are factors, this pricing seems to heavily discount the Pacers’ proven ability to win this specific matchup in this specific arena.
3. Closing Out: The Pacers have all the motivation to end the series now and avoid a potential Game 6 or 7. They have the offensive firepower led by a surging Tyrese Haliburton and the veteran presence of Pascal Siakam to weather the storm the Knicks will undoubtedly bring.
4. The Odds Themselves: A +145 moneyline translates to an implied win probability of just 40.8% for Indiana. Given their 2-0 record at MSG in this series and their overall series lead, these odds present significant value. The Pacers have shown they are, at worst, an even match for the Knicks, even in New York. Getting plus-money in this scenario is too good to pass up.

While the Knicks will fight tooth and nail, the Pacers have consistently found ways to score and make crucial plays. The value lies in backing a team that has already proven they can get the job done on this stage, against this opponent, in this building, especially when offered at attractive underdog odds.

Our Pick: Indiana Pacers Moneyline (+145)