The NBA Finals kick off as the high-flying Indiana Pacers visit the formidable Oklahoma City Thunder for Game 1. The Thunder, boasting the best record in the West, host a Pacers team that has surprised many with their potent offense and deep playoff run. With two of the league’s most exciting offenses clashing, this opening game promises fireworks.

Game Details:

• Matchup: Indiana Pacers (50-32 Reg. Season) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14 Reg. Season)
• Series: NBA Finals - Game 1
• Date: Thursday, June 5, 2025
• Time: 8:30 PM ET
• Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
• The Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 (EVEN); Over/Under: 230.5 (Over -105 / Under -110); IND ML +320 / OKC ML -425

Indiana Pacers Betting Preview

The Indiana Pacers (50-32 regular season) have navigated the Eastern Conference playoffs with their high-octane offense, ranking 7th in PTS/G (117.4) and 9th in Offensive Rating (116.5) during the regular season. They play at the 7th fastest pace (99.9). Led by Tyrese Haliburton (18.6 PPG, 9.2 APG) and Pascal Siakam (20.2 PPG, 6.9 RPG), the Pacers’ offensive firepower is undeniable. However, their defense ranked 13th (114.3 DRtg), which could be a concern against the Thunder. They were 20-20 on the road this season. Isaiah Jackson (calf) is out for the season, and Jarace Walker (foot) is a game-time decision.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14 regular season) were a dominant force all season, finishing 1st in the Western Conference. They possess the 3rd best Offensive Rating (120.3) and remarkably, the #1 Defensive Rating (107.5), leading to the league’s best Net Rating (+12.8). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an MVP candidate, averaging a staggering 32.7 PPG, 6.4 APG, and 1.7 SPG. Isaiah Hartenstein has been a force on the boards (10.7 RPG). The Thunder play at a quick pace (100.0, 6th) and were exceptionally strong at home (35-6). Rookie Nikola Topić (ACL) is out for the season.

Statistical Breakdown for the Total: Anticipating a High-Scoring Affair

Game 1 of the NBA Finals features two teams comfortable playing at a fast pace and scoring efficiently. The Over/Under is set at 230.5, and data suggests this might be surpassed:

• Pace of Play:
  • Indiana Season Pace: 99.9 (7th)
  • Oklahoma City Season Pace: 100.0 (6th)
  • Projected Game Pace: An average of these two, approximately 99.95 possessions.
• Projected Offensive Efficiency:
  • Indiana: Season ORtg 116.5. Facing OKC’s #1 defense on the road is tough, but their offense is built to score. We project their ORtg around 115.5 for this game.
  • Oklahoma City: Season ORtg 120.3. At home against Indiana’s 13th-ranked defense, they should thrive. We project their ORtg around 121.5.
• Projected Score & Total (using 99.95 pace):
  • Indiana: (115.5 / 100) * 99.95 = 115.44 points
  • Oklahoma City: (121.5 / 100) * 99.95 = 121.44 points
  • This leads to a projected game total of 236.88 points.
• The Discrepancy: Our projected total of 236.88 is 6.38 points higher than the market line of 230.5.
• Head-to-Head This Season:
  • March 29 @ OKC: OKC 132 - IND 111 (Total 243)
  • Dec 26 @ IND: OKC 120 - IND 114 (Total 234) Both regular-season matchups comfortably cleared the 230.5 total.

Prediction: Why the Over 230.5 (-105) is the Play

The 6.38-point difference between our data-driven projection (236.88) and the sportsbook’s total (230.5) indicates value in the Over. Both regular-season encounters between these teams were high-scoring, exceeding this total. Indiana’s offensive philosophy is to push the pace and score, and while OKC’s defense is elite, the Pacers have consistently put up points throughout the season and playoffs. Conversely, Indiana’s defense will likely struggle to contain OKC’s multifaceted and efficient attack, especially at the Paycom Center.

Given the offensive talent on both sides, the projected pace, and the history between these teams this season, expecting a game total north of 230.5 seems reasonable. The -105 odds for the Over make this an appealing selection for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Our Pick: Over 230.5 points (-105)