Thunder vs Pacers Game 3 Finals Prediction Wednesday 6/11/2025

After a dominant 123-107 victory in Game 2, the Oklahoma City Thunder have evened the series and seized back momentum, just as we called for in our Game 2 prediction. Now, the NBA Finals shift to Indianapolis for a crucial Game 3 with the series tied 1-1. The Indiana Pacers return to their raucous home floor, where they’ve been formidable all season, needing a win to protect their home court.

Game Details:

• Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers
• Series: NBA Finals - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1)
• Date: Wednesday, June 11, 2025
• Time: 8:30 PM ET
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• The Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 (-105); Over/Under: 228.5; IND ML +175 / OKC ML -210

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Thunder looked every bit the part of a 68-win team in Game 2. They corrected their mistakes from the opener, flexed their defensive muscles, and let their superstar lead the way. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been phenomenal, averaging 36.0 points through two games. What makes OKC so dangerous is their ability to win anywhere, evidenced by their stellar 32-8 road record during the regular season. Their league-best defense and top-tier offense travel well, and after solving the Pacers’ attack in Game 2, they will enter Game 3 with immense confidence.

Indiana Pacers Betting Preview

The Pacers head home needing to regroup. After a thrilling Game 1 win, they were brought back to earth by OKC’s adjustments. The home crowd at Gainbridge Fieldhouse will provide a significant boost, where Indiana posted a strong 29-11 record. For the Pacers to win, they must get a signature performance from Tyrese Haliburton, who has been solid but not spectacular, and they absolutely have to cut down on turnovers. Their 17.8% turnover rate in the Finals is a recipe for disaster against a Thunder team that thrives on transition offense, averaging 10.3 steals per game on the season.

Statistical Breakdown and Prediction

This is a classic “what gives?” matchup. The Pacers’ strong home-court advantage versus the Thunder’s elite overall talent and proven road success. While Indiana will certainly play better at home, the gap between these two teams was evident in Game 2.

• The Talent Gap: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player in this series by a considerable margin. His ability to control the game on both ends is a problem Indiana has yet to solve.
• Defense Wins Championships: The Thunder finished the season with the #1 Defensive Rating in the NBA. The Pacers finished 13th. That discrepancy is massive on the Finals stage. OKC showed they can disrupt Indiana’s high-powered offense, and that defense will travel to Indianapolis.
• Road Warriors: A 32-8 away record is no fluke. The Thunder are a poised and disciplined team that is not easily rattled by hostile environments. A 5.5-point spread feels more than manageable for a team that just won by 16 and had the league’s best Net Rating (+12.8) all year.

The Pacers will put up a fight, but the Thunder are simply the better, more complete basketball team. They have the superstar, the defense, and the road pedigree to take control of this series.

Our Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 (-105)