By gutting out a 111-104 victory in Game 4, the Oklahoma City Thunder wrestled back home-court advantage and tied the NBA Finals at two games apiece. The series, now a “best of three,” shifts back to Oklahoma City for a massively important Game 5. The Thunder’s response to adversity on the road has swung the momentum firmly back in their favor as they look to protect their dominant home record.

Game Details:

• Matchup: Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Series: NBA Finals - Game 5 (Series tied 2-2)
• Date: Monday, June 16, 2025
• Time: 8:30 PM ET
• Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
• The Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 (-110); Over/Under: 223.5; IND ML +320 / OKC ML -425

Indiana Pacers Betting Preview

The Pacers let a golden opportunity slip away in Game 4. Despite a valiant effort, they were out-executed in the fourth quarter and couldn’t close out the game on their home floor. The task now becomes exponentially harder as they head back into the “Loud City” environment where the Thunder have been a force all season (35-6 home record). For Indiana to have a chance, Tyrese Haliburton must not only orchestrate the offense flawlessly but also avoid the costly turnovers (5 in Game 4) that fuel OKC’s transition game. The Pacers’ supporting cast, which has been crucial to their success, must deliver their best road performance of the year.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Thunder proved their championship mettle in Game 4. Led by another spectacular performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (35 points) and a strong supporting role from Jalen Williams (27 points), OKC weathered the storm and closed the game with the poise of a top seed. Chet Holmgren’s 15 rebounds were instrumental in controlling the glass. Now back at the Paycom Center, they have a chance to take a commanding series lead. Their formula is clear: leverage their MVP-caliber star, play suffocating defense, and feed off the energy of one of the league’s most intense home crowds.

Statistical Breakdown and Prediction

This series has been a tale of two venues. The home team has won three of the four games, with OKC’s Game 4 win being the crucial exception that reset the series.

• The Loud City Advantage: The Thunder’s 35-6 home record speaks for itself. They have been nearly untouchable in their own building, and the atmosphere in a pivotal Game 5 will be electric.
• The SGA Factor: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the most dominant player in this series. In a swing game of this magnitude, the team with the best player on their home court has a significant edge. He has shown an ability to take over games, and we expect nothing less in this spot.
• Momentum and Response: OKC has all the momentum after snatching back a road win. They responded to their Game 3 loss with a focused, resilient effort. The Pacers, meanwhile, are coming off a deflating home loss. The psychological edge is squarely with the Thunder.

While the 9.5-point spread is large for a Finals game, the Thunder have demonstrated their ability to win big. Their 16-point victory in Game 2 at home is a prime example. The Pacers are a resilient team, but going into OKC and keeping this close after a tough loss seems like too much to ask.

Our Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 (-110)