The Minnesota Timberwolves travel to face the Oklahoma City Thunder in what promises to be a compelling NBA playoff matchup. Both teams have had strong seasons, but the Thunder’s dominant record and elite defense, combined with the Timberwolves’ own formidable defensive unit, suggest a game where points might be at a premium, contrary to what some raw offensive numbers might suggest. This prediction will delve into why the Under could be the smart play.

Game Details:

• Matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14)
• Date: Wednesday, May 20, 2025
• Time: 8:30 PM ET
• Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
• The Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5; Over/Under: 216.5 (Odds: Over -115 / Under -115)

Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview

The Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) have put together a solid season, built on a foundation of strong defense and the offensive talents of Anthony Edwards. Edwards has been exceptional, averaging 27.6 PPG and 4.5 APG. He’s supported by the interior presence of Rudy Gobert (12.0 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 1.4 BPG) and, according to the provided roster, the offensive capabilities of Julius Randle (18.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG). The Timberwolves average 114.3 points per game (13th in NBA) but boast an impressive defensive rating of 111.5 (6th), allowing only 109.3 PPG (5th). They play at the 24th ranked pace (97.3), indicating a more deliberate offensive style. Their games see an average of 223.6 total points (114.3 for, 109.3 against).

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) have been the class of the NBA, showcasing an incredibly balanced attack and the league’s best defense. Led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32.7 PPG, 6.4 APG, 1.7 SPG) and the versatile Jalen Williams (21.6 PPG, 5.1 APG), the Thunder’s offense is potent, averaging 120.5 points per game (4th) with an offensive rating of 120.3 (3rd). However, their defense is truly elite, with a league-best defensive rating of 107.5, allowing a mere 107.6 PPG (3rd). The data also lists Isaiah Hartenstein (11.2 PPG, 10.7 RPG) as a key contributor. OKC plays at a faster pace (100.0, 6th), but their defensive prowess is their calling card. Games involving the Thunder have averaged 228.1 total points (120.5 for, 107.6 against). They will be without Nikola Topić (ACL) for the season.

Statistical Breakdown for the Total

When evaluating the Over/Under of 216.5, the defensive capabilities of both teams stand out, suggesting a lower-scoring affair than the offensive talent might initially imply, especially in a playoff environment:

• Combined Average Scoring:
  • Timberwolves average 114.3 PPG.
  • Thunder average 120.5 PPG.
  • Their combined average is 234.8 points. While this is well above the 216.5 line, it doesn’t account for the opponent’s defense.
• Combined Average Points Allowed:
  • Timberwolves allow 109.3 PPG.
  • Thunder allow 107.6 PPG.
  • Their combined average points allowed is 216.9, very close to the total line.
• Pace of Play:
  • Oklahoma City plays faster (6th), but Minnesota is significantly slower (24th). Playoff games often see a reduction in pace and more half-court execution.
• Offensive Ratings:
  • Thunder: 120.3 (3rd)
  • Timberwolves: 116.6 (8th)
  • Both are top-10 offenses, but they are facing top-6 defenses.
• Defensive Ratings:
  • Thunder: 107.5 (1st - Elite)
  • Timberwolves: 111.5 (6th - Very Good)
  • This is the crucial factor. Two of the league’s premier defensive units clashing often leads to suppressed scoring.
• Average Game Totals (Combined Team Score + Opponent Score):
  • Timberwolves’ games average 223.6 total points.
  • Thunder’s games average 228.1 total points.
  • The average of these two figures is 225.85. While higher than the line, playoff intensity and elite-on-elite defensive matchups tend to drag this down.

Prediction: Why the Under 216.5 is the Play

While both teams possess significant offensive firepower with stars like Anthony Edwards and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the defining characteristic of this matchup is the elite defensive play on both sides. The Oklahoma City Thunder boast the NBA’s #1 defensive rating, and the Minnesota Timberwolves are not far behind at #6.

In playoff basketball, defensive intensity typically ratchets up, possessions become more valued, and the pace often slows. Minnesota already prefers a more deliberate pace. While OKC likes to get out and run, the Timberwolves’ defense and the playoff atmosphere could limit transition opportunities.

Given that both teams are in the top 6 defensively, it’s reasonable to expect them to make scoring difficult for each other. The total of 216.5, while not excessively high, might be overestimating the offensive output when two such strong defensive units collide in a high-stakes playoff game. The Thunder’s ability to lock down opponents, combined with Minnesota’s own strong defensive principles, points towards a game that could struggle to reach this total.

Our Pick: Under 216.5 points (-115)