The Oklahoma City Thunder, holding a commanding 3-1 lead in the Western Conference Finals, return to the Paycom Center aiming to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals as they host the Minnesota Timberwolves in a crucial Game 5. After a nail-biting 128-126 victory for the Thunder in Minnesota in Game 4, the Timberwolves find themselves on the brink of elimination and will need a monumental effort on the road to extend their season. Game 4 was an offensive showcase, and with everything on the line, Game 5 promises high-intensity basketball.

Game Details:

• Matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33 Reg. Season) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14 Reg. Season)
• Series: Oklahoma City Thunder lead 3-1
• Date: Thursday, May 28, 2025
• Time: 8:30 PM ET
• Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
• The Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 (-110); Over/Under: 220.5 (Over -110 / Under -110); MIN ML +290 / OKC ML -380

Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview

The Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33 regular season, 1-3 in series) are staring down elimination and must win on the road to keep their championship hopes alive. They fought valiantly in Game 4, putting up 126 points in a narrow loss. Anthony Edwards has been a key offensive force for the Timberwolves throughout the playoffs, averaging 24.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists in this series. Julius Randle has contributed 15.8 points and 6.0 rebounds per game against the Thunder, while Jaden McDaniels has been a strong two-way player, adding 15.3 points on efficient shooting (52.3% FG, 47.6% 3P). During the regular season, Minnesota averaged 114.3 PPG (13th) with an 8th-ranked offensive rating (116.6) and played at the 24th pace (97.3). Their defense was a hallmark, allowing 109.3 PPG (5th) with a 6th-ranked defensive rating (111.5). The Timberwolves have no new significant injuries reported.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14 regular season, 3-1 in series) are one win away from the NBA Finals and will look to close out the series in front of their home crowd. They showcased their offensive firepower in Game 4, scoring 128 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was spectacular in Game 4 with 40 points, 9 rebounds, and 10 assists, and is averaging 30.8 points and 8.3 assists in the series. Jalen Williams erupted for 34 points in Game 4, shooting 6-for-9 from three-point range, and is averaging 23.0 points in the series. Chet Holmgren has been a consistent contributor with 17.0 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. The Thunder’s regular season offense was potent, averaging 120.5 PPG (4th) with the 3rd-ranked offensive rating (120.3). They also boasted the league’s #1 defensive rating (107.5) and played at the 6th fastest pace (100.0). Their only significant injury is Nikola Topić, who is out for the season.

Statistical Breakdown for the Total: Another Offensive Showdown?

Game 4 saw a combined 254 points (OKC 128 - MIN 126), soaring past expectations and the current Game 5 line of 220.5. Our analysis suggests another high-scoring affair might be on the cards:

• Game 4 Pace & Offensive Ratings:
  • The game was played at a pace of 94.6. Oklahoma City’s Offensive Rating was an incredible 135.3, while Minnesota’s was also exceptionally high at 133.2.
• Projected Pace for Game 5: The series has averaged a faster pace of 97.1 possessions. We anticipate Game 5 will be played closer to this series average, given the urgency for both teams.
• Projected Offensive Efficiency:
  • Minnesota: Season ORtg 116.6, Series ORtg 118.5. With their backs against the wall, we project an ORtg around 119.5.
  • Oklahoma City: Season ORtg 120.3, Series ORtg 118.7. At home with a chance to clinch, we project an ORtg around 121.5.
• Projected Score & Total:
  • This projects to a neutral court score of roughly Minnesota 116.0 - Oklahoma City 118.0.
  • Factoring in home-court advantage (approx. 2.5 points for OKC), our projected score is closer to Oklahoma City 121 - Minnesota 116.
  • This leads to a projected game total of 237 points.
• The Discrepancy: Our projected total of 237 is a significant 16.5 points higher than the market line of 220.5.

Prediction: Why the Over 220.5 is the Play

The substantial 16.5-point difference between our data-driven projection (237) and the sportsbook’s total (220.5) is the primary driver for this pick. Game 4 was an offensive explosion, and while some shooting regression is possible (both teams shot over 43% from three-point range, well above their season and series averages), the offensive talent on both sides is undeniable.

Minnesota, facing elimination, will likely play with desperation, pushing the pace and looking to score. Oklahoma City has the offensive firepower to match and will be keen to close out the series with a strong performance at home. While Jalen Williams’ 6-for-9 three-point shooting for OKC, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Donte DiVincenzo combining for 10 threes for MIN in Game 4 are strong performances, the underlying offensive capabilities of both teams are elite.

Minnesota’s unusually high 23 turnovers in Game 4 (19.3% TOV rate) also presents an area for positive regression; fewer turnovers could lead to more efficient possessions for them. Even if the defensive intensity picks up, as expected in a closeout game, the sheer offensive talent and the precedent set in Game 4 suggest that scoring could remain high. To fall below 220.5 would require a drastic shift from what we witnessed in the last game and the offensive potential both teams have demonstrated throughout the playoffs. The value lies with the Over.

Our Pick: Over 220.5 points (-110)