The Dallas Wings host the Chicago Sky in a rematch of a game played just two days prior, where the Sky pulled off a 97-92 upset in Chicago. Both teams are struggling with 1-5 (Wings) and 1-4 (Sky) records, making this a crucial game for either side looking to gain momentum. Dallas will be looking for revenge on their home court.

Game Details:

• Matchup: Chicago Sky (1-4) vs. Dallas Wings (1-5)
• Date: Saturday, May 31, 2025
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: College Park Center, Arlington, TX
• The Line: Dallas Wings -2.5 (-110); Over/Under: 175.5 (Over -105 / Under -115); CHI ML +120 / DAL ML -140

Chicago Sky Betting Preview

The Chicago Sky (1-4) secured their first win of the season against these Dallas Wings, scoring a season-high 97 points. However, this offensive explosion is an outlier compared to their season average of 79.2 PPG (9th in WNBA) and 97.6 Offensive Rating (11th). Defensively, they are struggling immensely, allowing 93.8 PPG (13th) with a league-worst Defensive Rating of 115.6.

The Sky’s road form is a major concern, as they are 0-3 away from home, losing by an average of 17.7 points. Their Net Rating of -18.0 is 12th in the league, underscoring their overall struggles despite the recent win. Key players include Ariel Atkins (13.2 PPG) and rookie Angel Reese, who has been a rebounding machine (13.0 RPG).

Dallas Wings Betting Preview

The Dallas Wings (1-5) will be eager to bounce back at home. Despite their record, the Wings possess a potent offense, averaging 85.3 PPG (4th) with an impressive Offensive Rating of 106.9 (3rd). Arike Ogunbowale (17.7 PPG) and rookie Paige Bueckers (14.7 PPG, 6.7 APG) lead the charge. However, their defense has also been leaky, conceding 88.3 PPG (12th) with a Defensive Rating of 110.7 (11th).

Dallas is 0-2 at home, but those losses came against strong opponents (Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm). Their overall Net Rating of -3.8, while not good, is substantially better than Chicago’s. Tyasha Harris (G) is listed as game-time decision, and her potential return could provide an offensive boost.

Statistical Breakdown & Prediction: Value on the Wings

The betting line of Dallas -2.5 presents a significant value opportunity when analyzing team metrics and situational factors.

1. Net Rating Discrepancy: Dallas (-3.8 NetRtg) is considerably better than Chicago (-18.0 NetRtg) on paper. This 14.2-point difference in Net Rating suggests Dallas is the superior team. Factoring in a standard home-court advantage (approx. 2-3 points), a NetRtg-based line would favor Dallas by much more than -2.5.
2. Chicago’s Road Woes & Offensive Regression: The Sky are 0-3 on the road, with an average losing margin of 17.7 points. Their 97-point performance against Dallas was a season-high by a significant margin (previous high 89) and well above their 79.2 PPG average. Such an offensive outburst, especially from a team with a 40.9% FG (10th) and 31.1% 3P% (11th), is prone to regression, particularly on the road.
3. Dallas’s Offensive Strength vs. Chicago’s Weak Defense: The Wings boast the 3rd best Offensive Rating (106.9) in the WNBA. They now face a Sky defense that ranks last in Defensive Rating (115.6) and points allowed per game (93.8). This is a prime matchup for Dallas’s offense to excel.
4. Situational Spot: Dallas is at home after a road loss to this same Sky team. This sets up as a revenge spot and a “get right” opportunity against a struggling road team. While Dallas is 0-2 at home, those losses were to top-tier opponents, unlike the Sky.
5. ESPN Analytics: The ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Dallas a 70.3% probability of winning this game. A win probability of this magnitude typically corresponds to a spread closer to -5.5 or -6 points, not -2.5. This indicates the market line may be undervaluing Dallas.

Considering the significant gap in Net Rating, Chicago’s struggles on the road, the likelihood of offensive regression for the Sky, and Dallas’s favorable offensive matchup at home, the -2.5 spread for the Wings appears too low. The discrepancy between the market line and data-driven expectations points to strong value on the home favorite.

Our Pick: Dallas Wings -2.5 (-110)