The Phoenix Mercury host the Golden State Valkyries in a Western Conference clash. The Mercury (5-3) are looking to bounce back from a loss, while the Valkyries (2-4) are trying to snap a three-game skid. This game carries extra weight with significant injuries impacting the home team.

Game Details:

• Matchup: Golden State Valkyries (2-4) at Phoenix Mercury (5-3)
• Date: Thursday, June 5, 2025
• Time: 7:00 PM PT
• Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
• The Line (via ESPN BET): Phoenix Mercury -5.5 (-110) / Golden State Valkyries +5.5 (-110); Over/Under: 157.5 (Over -115 / Under -105); GSV ML +185 / PHX ML -225

Golden State Valkyries Betting Preview

The Golden State Valkyries (2-4) are struggling, currently 5th in the Western Conference and on a three-game losing streak. Offensively, they rank near the bottom of the league, averaging 74.0 points per game (12th) with a league-worst .368 field goal percentage and .275 three-point percentage. Their offensive rating is 94.5 (12th). Defensively, they allow 82.3 PPG (9th) with a defensive rating of 105.1 (9th), contributing to a dismal -10.6 net rating (11th). Kayla Thornton leads the team with 12.0 PPG. Veronica Burton also contributes 12.0 PPG and a team-high 4.2 APG. Tiffany Hayes (10.0 PPG in 3 games) is a game-time decision, and her presence would be a boost.

Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview

The Phoenix Mercury (5-3) sit 3rd in the West but are facing significant adversity due to injuries. While their season stats show a solid defensive team (76.9 Opp PTS/G - 3rd, 97.0 Def Rtg - 2nd) and a positive net rating of +1.3 (6th), the absence of key personnel is critical. Star forward Alyssa Thomas (15.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG, team-leading 8.0 APG, 47.3% AST%) is OUT. Additionally, Kahleah Copper (G-F) is OUT, Natasha Mack (F) is OUT, Megan McConnell (G) is OUT, and starting guard Sami Whitcomb (7.1 PPG) is a game-time decision. Satou Sabally (20.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG) will need to shoulder a massive offensive load. Phoenix’s offense averages 77.9 PPG (10th) overall, but this number has dipped in games Thomas missed. They are 4-1 at home this season.

Statistical Breakdown & Prediction: Value on the Valkyries to Cover

The Phoenix Mercury are significantly hampered by injuries, most notably the absence of Alyssa Thomas. This creates an opportunity for the Golden State Valkyries to cover the +5.5 spread.

1. Alyssa Thomas’s Critical Absence: Thomas isn’t just a scorer; she’s the engine of the Mercury offense. Her 8.0 assists per game rank 2nd in the WNBA, and her 47.3% assist percentage is 1st. Losing nearly half of the team’s assists and a primary playmaker drastically changes Phoenix’s offensive capabilities.
2. Phoenix’s Performance Without Thomas: In the three games Alyssa Thomas has missed, the Mercury are 1-2 SU. Their scoring dropped to an average of 73.7 PPG (down from their season average of 77.9 PPG), and their opponents scored an average of 80.7 PPG (up from 76.9 Opp PTS/G). This results in an average point differential of -7.0 in those contests.
3. Spread Implications: Phoenix failed to cover the spread as favorites in two of the three games Thomas missed (vs. MIN L 71-74 as favorites; @ LAS W 85-80 but failed to cover as -8.5 favorites). Against a +5.5 spread for the Valkyries, this trend is telling. In two of those three games, a +5.5 spread for the opponent would have cashed.
4. Golden State’s Relative Position: While the Valkyries are a struggling team (2-4, -10.6 NetRtg), the Mercury without Thomas have performed at a level that brings the two teams closer in practical terms for this specific matchup. GSV averages 74.0 PPG, which is right in line with what Phoenix has scored (73.7 PPG) without Thomas.
5. Additional Mercury Injuries: With Kahleah Copper, Natasha Mack, and Megan McConnell also out, and Sami Whitcomb (a starter) being a game-time decision, Phoenix’s depth is severely tested. This further limits their offensive options and rotations.

Even at home, where Phoenix is 4-1 (though 0-1 in the one home game Thomas missed, a 71-74 loss to Minnesota), the sheer offensive production and playmaking lost with Thomas (and potentially others) out makes covering a -5.5 spread a difficult task against any WNBA opponent. The Valkyries, despite their own flaws, are getting a decent number of points against a depleted squad.

Our Pick: Golden State Valkyries +5.5 (-110)